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Preliminary tests between the John Osgood and Christopher Osgood lines suggest that there is a relationship that may go back more than 15 generations. The first test show that there is a perfect match at 12 markers, 22 out of 25 markers and 32 out of 37 markers. FTDNA says that a perfect match at 12 markers or a genetic distance of zero indicates we "likely share a common male ancestor within the genealogical time frame. The combination of these facts demonstrates their relatedness."
At 25 markers there is a genetic distance of 3 or 22 out of 25 markers match. FTDNA says that a genetic distance of 3 at 25 markers "means they may be but are unlikely to share a common male ancestor within the genealogical time frame. The probability of a relationship is poor.
At 37 markers there is a genetic distance of 5 or 32 out of 37 markers match. FTDNA says that a genetic distance of 5 at 37 markers " A 32/37 match between two men who share a common surname (or variant) means that they may be related within the genealogical time frame, but additional evidence is needed to confirm the relationship."
"If several or many generations have passed since the suspected common ancestor, it is possible that these two men are related. That would require that each line had experienced separate mutations and line would
have experienced at least two mutations. The only way to confirm is to test additional family lines and find where the mutations took place. By testing additional family members you can find the person in between
each of you. This 'in betweener' becomes essential for you to find, and without him the possibility of a match exists, but further evidence must be pursued."
So what does this mean? It would be fair to say that the John and Christopher lines are related but outside of the genealogical time frame. The genealogical time frame that FTDNA refers to is 15 generations and the results seem to indicate that our relationship is more than 15 generations and thus outside the genealogical time frame. The standard for a generation is 25 years but varies from family to family and generation to generation. We need additional testing to confirm this.
Using our Y-DNA 37 test results, we can make some assumptions and compare our results in the Y-DNA TiP program. First assume that there are 10 generations between the current generation and John & Christopher. We could safely go back another 2 or 3 generations to 12 or 13 generations but it would only slightly change the probability but not the result. So comparing our results at 10 generations we get the probability of a shared ancestor.
In comparing Y-DNA37 markers, which show 5 mismatches, the probability that kit no. 201259 and kit no. 200946 shared a common ancestor within the last...
...12 generations is 22.60%. (300 years or approximately 1710)
...16 generations is 53.45%. (400 years or approximately 1610)
...20 generations is 75.98%. (500 years or approximately 1510)
...24 generations is 88.97%. (600 years or approximately 1410)
So I feel that it is safe to conclude that the John and Christopher lines are related, probably with a common ancestor sometime before 1600, which would confirm the research done by Jane Fletcher Fiske. Additional test from family members will be needed to confirm results.
At 25 markers there is a genetic distance of 3 or 22 out of 25 markers match. FTDNA says that a genetic distance of 3 at 25 markers "means they may be but are unlikely to share a common male ancestor within the genealogical time frame. The probability of a relationship is poor.
At 37 markers there is a genetic distance of 5 or 32 out of 37 markers match. FTDNA says that a genetic distance of 5 at 37 markers " A 32/37 match between two men who share a common surname (or variant) means that they may be related within the genealogical time frame, but additional evidence is needed to confirm the relationship."
"If several or many generations have passed since the suspected common ancestor, it is possible that these two men are related. That would require that each line had experienced separate mutations and line would
have experienced at least two mutations. The only way to confirm is to test additional family lines and find where the mutations took place. By testing additional family members you can find the person in between
each of you. This 'in betweener' becomes essential for you to find, and without him the possibility of a match exists, but further evidence must be pursued."
So what does this mean? It would be fair to say that the John and Christopher lines are related but outside of the genealogical time frame. The genealogical time frame that FTDNA refers to is 15 generations and the results seem to indicate that our relationship is more than 15 generations and thus outside the genealogical time frame. The standard for a generation is 25 years but varies from family to family and generation to generation. We need additional testing to confirm this.
Using our Y-DNA 37 test results, we can make some assumptions and compare our results in the Y-DNA TiP program. First assume that there are 10 generations between the current generation and John & Christopher. We could safely go back another 2 or 3 generations to 12 or 13 generations but it would only slightly change the probability but not the result. So comparing our results at 10 generations we get the probability of a shared ancestor.
In comparing Y-DNA37 markers, which show 5 mismatches, the probability that kit no. 201259 and kit no. 200946 shared a common ancestor within the last...
...12 generations is 22.60%. (300 years or approximately 1710)
...16 generations is 53.45%. (400 years or approximately 1610)
...20 generations is 75.98%. (500 years or approximately 1510)
...24 generations is 88.97%. (600 years or approximately 1410)
So I feel that it is safe to conclude that the John and Christopher lines are related, probably with a common ancestor sometime before 1600, which would confirm the research done by Jane Fletcher Fiske. Additional test from family members will be needed to confirm results.