A PSA on change-up to BY31357. It appears that Alex Williamson shifted several men beneath a new clade with SNPs ZS43 and Y32988. These variants aren't clearly read hence the description of bold grey SNPs in his tree:
SNP names which are bold grey indicates that their exact position on the tree is uncertain. This SNP may belong further upstream or all downstream branches may not be positive for it. This is often the case for SNPs found in FGC kits or 1kG kits in regions not covered by BigY tests.
This is likely a results of the continue expansion using higher coverage Big Y 700 test data.
The resulted in DOUGHERTY 38178 and O'DOGHERTY 31706 that were previously sitting basal the long tester box at BY31357, to being shifted to the basal level of this new subclade.
On a different note the addition of KELLY B313284 matching private variants to DOCHERTY 103960 resulted in another new clade beneath BY31357.
High resolution link: https://i.ibb.co/bvrHygd/screencapture-ytree-net-Display-Tree-php-2019-12-10-16-07-59.png
James Hugh Doherty, b. Castlederg, Co. Tyrone. Emmigrated as a child in 1847 with parents Hugh and Sarah. Married Ann Heatherston in Minnesota. Photo probably taken around 1900.
My Dad William Dougherty and me for comparison with Robert Harrington's Dad Carroll Edwin Harrington
My Dad, William Dougherty, as a boy
My Father Carroll Edwin Harrington (assumed last name, probable Doherty)
Just passing along
A great blog post written by Maurice Gleeson almost a year ago calling for the term 'NPE' (Non-paternity Event or Not Parent Expected) to be referred to as Surname or DNA Switch, 'SDS'. The blog is great at explaining the possibilities and probabilities of this occurring.
For a Doherty tester born in 1950 there is 31 – 52.5% of a SDS occurring in their patriline across 37 generations to what is believed to be the progenitor common ancestor of 850 – 900 AD. (continue reading for the math involved).
His probability calculations on this occurring is based on several conservative estimates from various studies of 1 – 2% per generation. Note that he calculated this incorrectly with a correction in the comments.
For Ó Dochartaigh if we are to assume that Group 1 testers descend from the progenitor of the first man to earn the title "Dochartaig" then the testers are estimated to converge at around 850-900 AD.
If we have a male Doherty (or variant spelling) tester born around 1950 then, on average assuming 30 years per generation, there would be approximately 1,100 years to this progenitor or ~37 generations.
So, the calculation for a 1% per generation would be:
0.99 ^ 37 = 0.6894
which is stating there is a 68.9% chance this Doherty tester DID NOT HAVE AN SDS on his line, or, in other terms, there is a 31% chance this tester's patriline experienced an SDS.
Same calculation for 2% would be:
0.98 ^ 37 = 0.4735 or 47.4% of no SDS, in other terms 52.6% probability of and SDS occurring across 37 generations.
So, a male tester born in 1950 would have a 31 – 52.5% chance of a Surname or DNA Switch on their patriline across 37 generations or approximately back to 850 AD when Group 1 Dohertys converge on a common ancestor.