(NOTE: The following data is always open to improvement and re-interpretation based on new discoveries and evolving information. Such changes are a certainty). NOTE2: In mid-late 2020 this page will be revised and brought up-to-date with current research and thinking. A lot is happening at the moment).
This project is a special focus project for the SNP R1b-L23-L51-L151-S1194 and the below sub-clades (A8039, CTS4528/DF100, etc: ) . If you are not positive for S1194 SNP or sub-SNPs, you should look for an alternate project that does focus on your terminal SNP or allocated Haplogroup as you will get a better focus from the members.
The R1b-S1194 SNP is currently one of four branches that are estimated to have mutated from their parent SNP R1b-L23-L51-L151 (aka L11) approx 4800-5200 years ago likely somewhere in Northern Europe (i.e. North Central Russia or Belarus / Ukraine or perhaps even Poland).
The four important R1b branches are R1b-P312, R1b-U106, R1b-S1194 (us) and R1b-A8053. These four Y-DNA lines make up the bulk of Western European Y-DNA. R1b-P312 and its many sub-branches are the dominant branch by far. The name 'Celtic' is most often associated with this Y-DNA line. R1b-U106 is much smaller than P312 and is associated with 'Scandinavian & Germanic' peoples. R1b-S1194 (this project), shows evidence of association with 'South Baltic/Germanic' peoples. R1b-S1194 is very small by comparison to the other two already mentioned. R1b-A8053 is really very tiny but seems, thus far, to show up in the same locations as R1b-S1194. These naming labels are very loose and merely a guide as to some positioning of the four Y-DNA lines.
The goal of the project is to, in time, trace the origins and migration paths of R1b-S1194 over the last 6,500 years or so. So, if you have any of these SNPs please feel free to join. As of 2020 we are getting surprisingly close to being able to establish a confident migration path from either, 1) a location around Volga-Ural near Samara & Kazan in Russia or alternatively, somewhere near the lower Don or Dnieper river valley in Southern Ukraine. The Volga-Ural area includes Kazan which is a couple of hundred kms up the Volga from Samara. The oldest currently recognized R1b-L23 ancient DNA burial we have on record to-date, has been found at Samara.
Just exactly which place we came from or via, is slowly emerging as more ancient DNA burials from Russia, Poland & Ukraine are analyzed and published.
At this project, we are really only interested in the chain of SNPs and people migrations starting with R1b-L23 as we know it is ancestral to all the R1b-L151 (aka L11) sub-clades (that include P312/U106/S1194/A8053) as well as the Yamnaya R1b clades and others who so far appear to be quite dominantly R1b-L23-Z2103. So, as of to-date, the oldest known R1b-L23 burial is found in the middle Volga region (I0443 R1b1a2a L23 W3a1a Lopatino, Samara 3300-2700 BCE). It is assumed that for now, this area/region is going to be the origin of R1b-L23. We can see a clear trail from R1b-L23 in this area via one of its two important sub-clades = R1b-L23-Z2103, this sub-clade in particular moves down the Volga to Kalmykia and then along the Black Sea coast and is accompanied by I2 Y-DNA finds. Z2103 & I2 seem to show up a lot together. The oldest known Z2103 we have on file is identified as I0370 at Ishkinova Eastern Orenburg Samara. Our own parent R1b-L51 SNP is a brother clade to R1b-Z2103 so it is also assumed that L51 formed within close proximity of the parent SNP L23 and L51's brother clade Z2103. But, thus far L51 is not showing up around the Volga-Ural area, yet!. However we have very powerful published circumstantial evidence that L51 came from the Volga-Ural area too. This evidence comes from papers covering the Afanasievo burials in Russia/Mongolia Altai region.
Here is a very helpful map of Russia that includes all the places we will talk about including Ukraine & Belarus. At a future date we will mark out the areas & dates and movements. The homeland of the 'Yamnaya' is considered to be between the Volga-Kama River junction area, going down the Volga to Kalmykia (which sits at the top left of the Caspian Sea) and extends from Kalmykia over to the Dnieper river and Don River areas in Southern Ukraine.
We have recent supporting evidence of a R1b-L23-L51-L52 (aka P310) burial named I6222, at a slightly later date (published as 5067 ybp or 3067 BCE), found in the Afanasievo Culture located in the Altai Mountains straddling the Mongolian - Russian border. It is published that the Afanasievo people migrated there from the Volga-Ural region which is where Samara and Kazan are. Included with the L51-L52 Afanasievo find, are several Z2103 burials (brother clade to L51). This tells us that both L51 & Z2103 as brother clades, will have traveled from the Volga-Ural region to the area of the Altai mountains where the Afanasievo burials were found. This was no short journey. Note that by air (direct flight) the distance from Samara to the Altai mountains at the Russia-Mongolia border is approx 2,130km minimum. The Afanasievo R1b-L23-L51-L52 I6222 burial is currently showing as the oldest known L51 find, but, as is published in the Afanasievo paper, Z2103 & L51 migrated to the Altai region from the Volga-Ural area. Also note that the route in the opposite direction to St Petersburg, from the middle Volga area (Kazan & Samara), offers a river path *all the way*. For anyone migrating away from the Volga-Ural area, so the St Petersburg route is also available and is both easier and should be quicker to complete if someone needed to move rapidly away from the Volga-Ural region for any reason.
Map showing river trade routes used in Viking times (Volga & Dnieper). This shows it was possible for migrations from both middle Volga & Dnieper rivers to the Baltic.
Map & paper (2018) showing R1b-L23 in Afanasievo and its link to the Volga-Ural region.
Later paper (2020) identifying the current oldest known R1b-L23-L51-L52 (aka P310) burial as being found in Afanasievo
There are reasons (below), to speculate that sub-clades of R1b-L23 may have migrated quickly in several directions from the Volga-Ural region and possibly the Volosovo culture area just above the Volga-Ural area. So looking at these 'migrations' we have already mentioned that Z2103 & L51 went to the Afanasievo site (travelling east from Volga-Ural). We also know that L51 reached the Sth Baltic one way or another, which is west of Volga-Ural, add to this that there isn't yet any evidence of Z2103 showing up in any numbers around the Baltic, just L51, however, Z2103 clearly did travel in numbers (travelling south from Volga-Ural) down the Volga to Kalmykia and on over to the Black Sea nth & west coasts as can be seen in the pattern of Z2103 ancient burials that are oldest at Samara and younger around the areas of Kalmykia and the Black Sea coast, including up the Danube and over to the east of the Hungarian Plains.
Oldest R1b prior to R1b-L23:
There are many very old R1b (pre-L23) ancient burial finds all over Europe. These are widely dispersed and can be found 1000s of kms apart. These early R1b locations include Villabruna Italy (the oldest R1b, and recently extended to approx 17K ybp), plus in Iberia (Spain), in Romania, in Serbia, in Dereivka Ukraine, in Khvalynsk Russia, in Samara Russia, and at the Baltic Sea in Latvia (Narva culture). This is a massive dispersal over a vast region and covering around 11,000 years (approx 17,000 ybp to 6,000 ybp). It is clear most of those lines died out but R1b-L23 at Samara Russia, did not. Note again that from Volga-Ural to the Baltic (Latvia) there is a navigable river route all the way between Kazan-Samara and Latvia-Lithuania and at around 7,500 BCE several of these older pre-L23 burials can be found in both locations including as the Narva culture in Latvia and Samara (as Khvalynsk culture).
We see the main issue for R1b-L23-L51-L151 descendants to be concerned with, is where we get our admixture from and today that is usually measured as %s of 'Hunter', 'Farmer' and 'Yamnaya' (aka 'Steppes origin' or 'Metal Age Invader'). Volga-Ural is considered to be in the Forest Steppe zone. As mentioned, these above older pre-L23 finds span from 15000 BCE at Villabruna to 5,500 BCE at Samara & Khvalynsk (17,000 ybp to 7,500 ybp). So, today, R1b-L23 is our starting point. Interestingly, R1b-L23 is a brother clade to one rare but surviving haplogroup called R1b-PF7562 (mostly now found in Armenia).
R1b-L23-Z2103 and I2 burials are regular finds among Pontic Caspian Steppes Yamnaya burials. The Pontic Caspian Steppes are open flat plains. AFAWCT, no R1b-L23-L51 has yet been found in any of these Yamnaya burials. This is a significant matter that impacts parts of what is said here. So, restated, we are making the assumption that R1b-L23 emerged somewhere in the middle Volga between Kazan-Samara around 4500-3500 BCE or 6,500-5,500 ybp (NOTE: YFull's latest suggestion is 6,400ybp for L23). Following on that assumption, we are until proven otherwise, accepting that our two important child-clades that are just below R1b-L23 (i.e. Z2103 and L51) also emerged in this same region of Samara - Kazan (note Khvalynsk is located just below Samara).
Any assumptions we are making, do need to stand the test of time.
Map of the middle Volga region and central Russia (Moscow)
An outstanding 2018 based study of Ancient Cultures and burial finds can be seen in this slide-show format document (from Mikkel Nørtoft - Uni of Copenhagen). This presentation and their 'Homeland Timeline Map' is going to be updated with a large number of new ancient burials, in late 2020.
2015 Haak et al. One current and very popular migration path suggests that R1b-L23-L51-L151 (aka L11) reached western Europe as an extension of the Yamnaya from the Kalmykia end of the Pontic-Caspian Steppes, particularly one group who moved along the Black Sea coast, up the Danube and into the Carpathian Basin (Hungarian Plains) then up the Danube to the rest of western Europe. But, current evidence is that this group stopped and remained in the Hungarian plains east of the Tisza River. IOO This claim has complications related to obvious missing R1b-L23-L51 DNA among these particular Yamnaya which to date only show R1b-L23-Z2103 + I2 burials, and despite its popularity, this hypothesis (of L51 up the Danube) remains unproven. Restated, to-date Yamnaya burials don't contain any R1b-L23-L51, however they do contain a solid core of R1b-L23-Z2103 & I2. The clade called Z2103 is a brother clade to L51 and both come from R1b-L23. What drives this particular theory is the the strong Yamnaya admixture signal in later western European L151 (aka L11) peoples (Western Cordedware & Central Bell Beaker). R1b-L151 (aka L11) is the immediate parent SNP of the important P312/U106/S1194/A8053 brother clades. It makes the assumption (i.e. there is no burial evidence yet) that R1b-L23-L51 traveled alongside R1b-L23-Z2103 + I2 peoples from the Pontic Caspian Steppes to the Black Sea coast, then up the Danube and into the Carpathian Basin and then again up the Danube and on into Europe.
Mikkel Nørtoft Map showing Yamnaya Migrations = http://s1194.org/Images/ftdna/Yamnaya-migrations-1.jpg
The L151 child clades (P312, U106, S1194 and A8053) appear to have emerged in North Western Europe sometime around 4,800-5,200 years ago (2,800-3,200BCE). This date comes from YFull's estimate of the age of these SNPs. If as is obvious, L51 and Z2103 are cousins, and Z2103 is a core SNP that makes up who we call Yamnaya, then it seems self-evident that L51 will be partly admixed with Z2103. However, it is also a clear possibility that the Z2103 Yamnaya in the Carpathian Basin (Hungarian Plains) were trading extensively with peoples from the north and north west who would include Cordedware and later Bell Beakers (P312). Csepel Island (Budapest) is the obvious trading post where the south east Yamnaya groups interacted with the north & western Cordedware & Bell Beakers. It also seems entirely logical that brides were exchanged between the two groups. This would show up as Yamnaya admixture among the Bell Beakers and Carpathian Yamnaya. Logically we would expect U106 & S1194/A8053 to show less of this particular Yamnaya admixture if they were mostly around the Sth Baltic which is much further away.
We believe these points are an acceptable explanation for the 'Yamnaya' signal in L151 Cordedware & Bell Beaker ancient burials. Another aspect is that to-date only P312 has been found in Bell Beaker burials, no U106 or S1194 or A8053. So a noticeable difference in the Yamnaya admixture signal between P312 & U106 would tend to support admixture via trade and social interaction at Csepel Island.
Map of Hungary showing the Tisza River & the Danube river and showing Budapest where Csepel Island is located.
March 2020. A more recent line of debate has L51 emerging between the lower Don & the Dnieper rivers in a Sredny Stog cultural setting and admixing with Yamnaya from the Steppes before travelling up the Dnieper River thru the Ukraine, and possibly Belarus, then Poland and then spreading into the rest of western Europe as L151 (aka L11). This line of exploration needs some deeper explaining as to how L51 as a child clade of L23 which thus far is shown to be oldest in the middle Volga region, got there (to the lower Don / Dnieper), but apart from this not overly obstructive issue, it is a well supported and reasoned hypothesis. But, it too is not proven. If older L23 or Z2103 (older than the Samara ancient burials) can be found around the lower Don or the Dnieper basin (or even the Caucuses), then this new location would become the new prime candidate place of origin for R1b-L23 & R1b-L23-Z2103 & R1b-L23-L51, but as of today the known origin location for L23 & L23-Z2103, remains at Samara (and Khvalynsk located just below Samara).
A further complication regarding R1b-L23-L51 coming from the lower Don or the Dnieper river valley, is that an old R1b-L23-L51-L52 burial that has a similar age to its oldest R1b-L23-Z2103 cousin from Samara. As already mentioned, this find is known to be part of a group that migrated to the Altai mountains (near today's Russian-Mongolian border) as the Afanasievo culture (3300 BCE — 2500 BCE). They migrated to this area from the Pontic Caspian Steppes which could mean either from the Samara part of the Volga or less likely but from the Kalmykia (Caspian Sea) area (the Afanasievo paper says they came from Volga-Ural which is the Samara-Kazan area). There are questions as to the accuracy of the age of this Afanasievo L51-L52 find but it establishes an obvious path for L51-L52 from the Pontic Caspian Steppes to the Altai region in a similar era. What we also need to remember is that L52 sits 4 SNPs above L151 (with L151 being parent of P312,U106,S1194 & A8053). But, one flaw that seems to impact this hypothesis is that Sredny Stog (at least the late Sredny Stog) appear to be R1a peoples. We know that R1a-Z93 came from Sredny Stog and swept into central Russia as the Fatyanovo Culture. This was made clear recently in the below paper.
Genetic ancestry changes in Stone to Bronze Age transition in the East European Plain:
Eurogenes Blog coverage of this paper ...
June 2020. A third but speculative possibility is that L23-L51 and L23-Z2103 both emerged in the middle Volga near to the Volga-Kama junction and while the Z2103 clan mixed with I2 and spread down the Volga as the emerging Yamnaya, also spreading east towards what is now Kazakhstan. The brother clade of L23-L51 as a clan, may have traveled, up the Volga and allowing for several possibilities, either inhabited places in north central Russia (Volosovo) before reaching the Baltic, and/or moved off the Volga over to the Don River possibly via the Oka River, to the Dnieper river Basin. What prompted this quite new and different hypothesis is that in mid 2019, very strong rumors emerged in research circles, that R1b-L23-L51 ancient burials had been positively identified in a place called Sakhtysh which is above and a bit to the East of Moscow (between Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod (on the Volga)). Volosovo is a pre Cordedware culture dated 3650-2501 BCE. It is understood by us that R1b Y-DNA is common in the Volosovo culture and that the Volosovo region is located between the Middle Volga (Kazan near the Volga-Kama Rivers junction) all the way to modern Moscow and into the upper Volga & Oka Rivers as well as up the tributary rivers running north from the upper Volga further up from Nizhny Novgorod which itself is situated in the heart of the Volosovo culture area. Volosovo Y-DNA finds need to be published to help address this (see hypothesis 5).
A map showing the Volosovo Culture area and its date-range
Sakhtysh map - where 'alleged' R1b-L23-L51 ancient burial was said to be found (DNA analysis paper yet to be published)
A map showing the later Fatyanovo (listed as Cordedware) their arrival over the top of Volosovo Culture could account for Volosovo dispersal in all directions. Not that Afanasievo appears at around the same time Fatyanovo R1a-Z93 arrives in the Volosovo area (Moscow to Kazan). The 2800 BCE date shown for Fatyanovo is also stated as 3000 BCE in other papers.
If very early L51 were indeed found at Sakhtysh, it needs to be dated against the R1b-L23-L51-L52 burial at Afanasievo Culture. It 'should' be the oldest L23-L51 between Kazan-Samara and western Europe apart from later finds around the southern Ukraine and the Iron Gates region (east of the Carpathian mountains). Thus far there has been no confirmation of this Sakhtysh find so the story remains speculative. If nothing gets published to back up a Sakhtysh L23-L51 find by end 2021, then we will remove this story from our page as it is only inspired by the quite strong Sakhtysh rumor and the alleged existence of R1b-L23-L51 in Volosovo. What does make this possibility interesting though, is that much older ancient burials of pre-L23 R1b going back 7,500 years ago, are known to exist with similar ancient lines of DNA (R1b-L297 found in Latvia (Narva culture) on the Baltic dated 7,800–6,800 ybp, and R1b-L278 finds at Samara dated 7,500 ybp). So we already have R1b with a close enough SNP connection at both the Baltic Sea (Latvia) and the middle Volga (Samara) and around the same period. This implies previous travel connections between the middle Volga (Volga-Kama) and the Baltic. It is a fact that travelers with log boats or rafts, could go all the way from the middle Volga to the Baltic sea. Log boats dated back to 8,000 ybp have been found around the Sth Baltic notably at Stralsund (opp Sth Sweden).
See this map showing The middle Volga (with Kazan & Samara) & the Oka river, and how the Oka almost meets with the upper Don River.
Also, to illustrate modern water travel along the entire Volga, see the cruises map at this site - St Petersburg to Kazan-Samara & Volgograd.
July 2020. Another speculative hypothesis. It is both a new approach but at the same time an old one. This approach extends the story of Hypothesis 3 and tells a story of R1b-L23 expanding from around the middle Volga (Volga-Kama junction). In this hypothesis as for Hypothesis 3, we have R1b-L23-Z2103 emerging around the Samara region just down from the Volga Kama junction, and we have R1b-L23-L51 emerging in the Kazan region (up the Volga from the Kama junction). This Kazan group then spread into Central Russia to become the Volosovo culture. As mentioned in Hypothesis 3) Volosovo spreads from the Kama junction up the upper Volga and to Moscow with Nizhny Novgorod as its centre. Then a group from Volosovo culture migrate to the Altai mountains to become the Afanasievo culture. Other Volosovo migrate west then split in two and move into western Europe as two groups (one containing L151-P312 & The other with L151-U106/S1194/A8053).
So, the difference with this hypothesis is that somewhere between Moscow and Belarus/Ukraine we get the great split out of haplogroup R1b-L23-L51-L11-L151. From this split, R1b-P312 breaks off and moves into what is today the Ukraine / Poland and Alpine Sth Germany / Bohemia. From there P312 moved in many directions including becoming part of the Western Cordedware. The other split is U106/S1194/A8053 who move to the Baltic Sea then along the Baltic coast where U106 establishes its Urheimat at the base of Jutland (possibly around today's Hamburg and spreading towards Nth Netherlands (the heart of Greater Frisia) and U106 clearly moved up Jutland as well. It seems probable that S1194/A8053 remained around the South Baltic to the East of Hamburg spreading into what is today Sth Sweden and Eastern Denmark plus are located in what became Pomerania (around Wolin Island).
This hypothesis does have some early supporting evidence based on a 2005 study that evaluated DYS390 diversity among modern R1b peoples sampled and crucially based on data from a University database (versus coming from later more questionable commercial DNA testing databases). This study found that the greatest diversity for DYS390 was found in Baltic-Russia with the next being Baltic-Nth Sea (Nth Germany/Nth Poland/Denmark & Jutland). This diversity implies that modern R1b spent much more time in Baltic-Russia than anywhere else and that the Baltic-Nth Sea group split from the Baltic-Russian group. The lowest DYS390 diversity was found among R1b people in the Iberian peninsula. The study points out that Baltic-Russia diversity was twice what is found in Iberia. In addition, the study identifies a DYS390 diversity that fits between the above groups and located in Alpine Sth Germany. This same study pointed to the Iberian R1b as most likely having split from the Alpine Sth Germany group. The Alpine-Sth Germany group are said to have origins back in Central Russia. This does appear to be consistent with the known separation between U106 (Scandinavian / Germanic) and P312 (aka Bell Beaker / Celtic). It thus offers a logical explanation for P312 expansion from Poland-Sth German-Bohemia and consistent with a separate more northern U106 expansion from the bottom of Jutland. It might be argued that Alpine-Sth Germany is the Urheimat for P312 and Celts. The well known P312 'Celtic' based Hallstatt and La Tene cultures emerged in Austria & Switzerland much later (i.e. around 1500 years later).
R1b DYS390 Diversity: (place cursor over the markers & also click them to see that specific data)
Map of Hungary showing the Tisza River & the Danube river and showing Budapest where Csepel Island is located.
This is yet another extension to 3) and 4) - what this 'emerging' hypothesis intends to look at is some evidence that around 3,000 BCE, began a wave of R1a-Z93 movement along with their descendants, starting from the area of Sredny Stog (lower Ukraine), and moving into central Russia where the Volosovo Culture had been previously established. This is an 'if' scenario that says if future papers expected soon, about Volosovo, and shows them up as having R1b-L23-L51, then we may have the 'smoking gun' evidence for an exodus of R1b-L23-L51, from the area of the Volosovo *and* Yamnaya cultures. We already have the published data that R1b-L23-L51 *and* R1b-L23-Z2103 travelled (in a very short period) from the Volga-Ural area or from the Volosovo Culture areas (the Afanasievo study says they came from Volga-Ural region). There is also the circumstantial evidence that R1b-L23-L51 moved very quickly into western Europe to become R1b-L23-L51-L52-L151. There is already a clear trail of ancient burials showing R1b-L23-Z2103 and I2 moving away south from Samara to Kalmykia - along the Black Sea coast then up the Danube and settling in the east part of the Hungarian Plains east of the Tisza River. The picture we see emerging is of a comparatively quick exodus from Volosovo & middle Volga in all directions. The R1a-Z93 Fatyanovo peoples also kept moving and carried on into the Steppes and on to Western Iran, the *stans countries, and eventually into Northern India. Today most R1a of Z93 origin is found in Iran, the *.stans, and northern India. The R1a-Z93 back then were a very warlike and apparently aggressive people (i.e. the Scythians are considered as R1a-Z93). Today, the bulk of R1a in Russia/Europe is R1a-Z283.
Reading some of the chapters in part 15 the below D Anthony book (Horse Wheel and Language) shows how violent life was in this area and era.
Fatyanov replaces Volosovo - articles & papers:
Genetic ancestry changes in Stone to Bronze Age transition in the East European Plain:
Eurogenes Blog commentary of this ...
An opinion piece on this ... 'Fatyanovo replaced Volosovo'
David Anthony's book 'Horse Wheel & Language' - ch 15 - See Volosovo map and read of increased warfare.
Look at diag 15.9 (also see diag 15.5 ). The map at 15.9 is very similar to the Volosovo map shown in the Homeland Timeline map created by Copenhagen University and linked to in hypothesis 3 (Mikkel Nørtoft). This part of the book also points out the increased warfare and the growing warrior class. See Sintashta Culture.
This update to be continued (01 Aug 2020) ......
A very brief history of R1b-M269 and its impact on Europe:
This is a summary based on 2018-2019 knowledge. It is likely to change as more detailed information becomes available especially from on-going ancient DNA discoveries in Europe and middle Russia. So, for those deeply interested, one history starting at R1b-M269 is covered well by Prof David Anthony in the below link to a recent update of his works - (at the linked to PDF document, See story 2 - pages 39-70). These views put forward by Prof Anthony are a good starting point. As always, expect details to change as newer data emerges. One view put forward by Prof Anthony that still lacks supporting evidence is that R1b-P312 (and thus R1b-U106 + R1b-S1194 + R1b-A8053) arrived in Europe via the Hungarian Plains (Carpathian Basin) as part of the Yamnaya Steppes Nomads these people emerged from. Prof Anthony has suggested that L11 (a parent just above L151 itself parent of P312/U106/S1194/A8053) could be found in the Kurgan burials in the Hungarian Plains. So far not one has been found there or on the path between the Carpathian Basin and Samara from where the Yamnaya appear to have emerged. The only aDNA on that path, thus far, only shows I2 DNA and R1b-L23-Z2103 DNA (a different branch of R1b parallel to R1b-L23-L51). R1b-Z2103 with I2, seems to have arrived in the Hungarian Basin from the Samara Valley then stopped there with only very small traces of R1b-Z2103 showing up any further west of the plains such as an ancient find in in the Vučedol Culture (Croatia). But, R1b-Z2103 can be seen today in the Balkans and Middle East with some small remaining Y-DNA lines in western Europe. L51, the brother branch to Z2103 is not being found here. Main Point: R1b-L51 (cousin to R1b-Z2103) has *not* been found around Samara or between Samara and the Carpathian Basin (Hungarian Plains). There is recent news that L51 has been found at Sakhtysh Russia, but we have to wait for more news on this. That is expected in late 2020 or early 2012.
A much newer and interesting document was recently (2020) put out by David Anthony. It has some interesting issues that relate to some of the R1b-L23 origins looked at earlier. The link is ... https://www.academia.edu/39985565/Archaeology_Genetics_and_Language_in_the_Steppes_A_Comment_on_Bomhard?auto=download&fbclid=IwAR3ZnGPcRlaZcivRb7xXjIeLmBRe49AiTZAZkRcLs75f89GIozGF3RB1Dg0
Below is a link to the Eupedia R1b phylogenetic tree. It includes R1b-M269 and is helpful as a reference as to where M269 fits into the total R1b picture. The notations on this tree is not 100% up-to-date but the main purpose is to show that R1b-L51 & R1b-Z2103 are separate brother sub-clades of R1b-L23 which in turn is a sub-clade of R1b-M269. It is also worth noting that R1b-L23 itself is separate (a brother branch) to the Armenian R1b-PF7562 branch. That Armenian branch was one of the very early splits from R1b-M269 and is thus one of the oldest R1b lines still located in a small regional area. Today R1b-PF7562 is dominant in Armenia. A resonable implication regarding this is that both R1b-L23-Z2103 and R1b-PF7562 headed towards the the Black Sea and to the Caucuses (Armenia).
See https://www.eupedia.com/europe/Haplogroup_R1b_Y-DNA.shtml (Scroll down to the tree).
R1b-M269, from the Pontic/Caspian Steppes to the Sth Baltic and elsewhere:
(Several of the following diagrams are the work of Edward Peggler who runs his own blog site called 'Armchair Prehistory' ...
Edward has granted us permission to to link to his diagrams and to reuse extracts of his notes. (Please do not copy or link to them without his permission). We chose his diagrams because they convey very clear meanings in an uncomplicated way. His diagrams and details are good enough to use in our story.
Some believe our story begins with the Yamnaya Culture (3300-2800 BCE) which had been preceded by the Khvalynsk culture (1st half of the 5th Millenium BCE) around Samara Russia. Khvalynsk was in turn preceded by the Samara Culture and likely the Kama Culture before that. The newer of these cultures show autosomal DNA links to the later European Cordedware culture (c. 2900-2200 BCE). As of mid-2019, there are serious questions being raised as to if our branch, the R1b-L151 line (immediate parent of P312-U106-S1194-A8053) was already in northern Europe *before* the Yamnaya (now regarded as consisting of R1b-Z2103 & I2) ever settled in the Pontic Caspian Steppes. This is an evolving story it may take months to resolve and depend on some new 2020 publications on ancient DNA finds. 2020 is the year we expect to get some definitive answers to this.
Yamnaya origins: Samara Valley Russia (up above Volgograd (former Stalingrad)). It is believed (W. Haak 2015 et al), that groups of Yamnaya (if this name remains valid) with R1b DNA, migrated into surrounding regions. In this project, we are particularly interested in any groups, and even earlier groups, that migrated to central, western and northern Europe as we know that one of these groups carried our parent line of R1b-L23-L51-L11-L151 DNA. Other migrating groups from the Kazan/Samara region also carried the R1a line that include (among many), the Slavic, Balto-Slavic & Uralic peoples, into Europe. One R1a Y-DNA group (R1a-Z93) moved into others parts of Asia including what is today Turkey, Iran and northern India. A 2020 paper makes the case for R1a-Z93 emerging in a Sredny Stog Cultural context then migrating into Central Russia to become the Fatyanovo then Abashevo and also Sintashta culture.
While the Cordedware culture had been thought of, up until 2019, as dominated by R1a, it is now being shown that R1b is also appearing in western Cordedware burials. It is also being explored as to if R1b reached northern Europe 1st or R1a reached there 1st or perhaps more likely they arrived at similar times. The connection of R1b to Cordedware now exists but just where and when is still being clarified. In late 2019 a new publication from Alissa Mettnik et al., (who published the 2018 paper 'The genetic prehistory of the Baltic Sea region'). was released that provided more clarity on the inclusion of R1b-P312 in association with Cordedware burials.
It is now believed in some research circles, that the R1b migration into Europe that begat P312/U106/S1194/A8053 likely occurred around 2,800-3,000 BCE. Then around 2,500 BCE, R1b-P312 in particular P312 swept through Western Europe from the Netherlands into Britain and then in other directions around western Europe (France Italy then Spain). The recent (2018) study of Bell Beakers by Olalde et al., makes a case for Bell Beaker R1b-P312 (often referred to as 'Celts') arriving in Britain around 2,500 BCE where they displaced the pre-existing WHG & EEF Y-DNA by an estimated 90% within 200 years. January 2020 NOTE: Several citizen scientists with excellent credentials are arguing that R1b-L51 or R1b-L51-L151 were already in northern Europe before or around 3,000 BCE. This is an evolving story. The estimated mutation date for L151 sub-clades is around 4,800-5,200 years ago that could really only mean 2 things: 1) L151 predates *any* Yamnaya (Z2103 + I2) arrival in central Europe or the mutation happened back in the middle Volga (Samara), but, with no as yet L51 finds occuring around there. As time passes option 2 looks weaker. L51 is now expected to show up in north Russia with sub-clades emerging in Belorus/Poland or the Ukraine or also close by in north Russia. Recent DNA blog discussions suggest L51 has been found at Sakhtysh Russia, in a Volosovo Culture context. Papers on this possibility are anticipated in 2020. If this is confirmed it opens up entirely new possibilities that will clearly exclude a Yamnaya Steppes Nomads origin other than L51 being cousins to Z2103.
Current thinking suggests that a group of people called the 'Central European Bell Beaker (BB)' peoples emerged within or adjacent to the western end of the Cordedware Culture. Then BB later swept into many parts of Europe. As of today Central Bell Beaker are dominantly from P312 burials. Some R1b-Z2103 BB *may* emerge in a BB context. New publications in 2020 will hopefully expand on this.
There isn't really clear evidence yet as to why and how this rapid re-populating of western Europe and Britain happened. Some thoughts on this include the following ... It may have been as a result of a pandemic affecting the existing population of UK & western plus central Europe. See https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/06/earliest-plague-strain-found-in-sweden-holds-clue-to-stone-age-migration-from-east - the change may have been by conquest (the arriving R1b-P312 Bell Beaker peoples were a warrior race) but there are some reasons to question this line of thought i.e. is it really possible for a band of P312 to sweep the majority of European and British WHG/EEF Y-DNA away in just 200-500 years? (between approximately 2800BCE and 2300BCE). We think other reasons need to be considered but it remains a possibility. There are many known periods where the climate of the region (esp the Nth Sea) was severely impacted by weather & by seaborne inundations e.g. for some later major events See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkirk_transgression.
Anyone who has spent time in Friesland & Jutland knows very well how low lying it all is and how swampy it is and has been. There are and were places in Jutland where a person can travel by boat between the Baltic Sea to the North Sea.
Such weather changes could have and did have serious effects of farming and thus the people in Europe. However, the massive European population change that occurred between 2,900 BCE -2,200 BCE could also have been from any combination of the events just outlined. If it were to be shown that P312 expanded in the north Netherlands region then weather events may have favored their rapid expansion out of this region.
Simplified overview of Yamnaya movement: (click link for image)
The Yamnaya peoples themselves, were an admixture of WHG (Western Hunter Gatherers), EHG (Eastern Hunter Gatherers who in turn were an admixture that included WHG + ANE (Ancient North Eurasians)). Yamnaya also show admixture with CHG (Caucasus Hunter Gatherer). The R1 (incl R1a & R1b) Y-DNA line appears to have come from the ANE who were known to be in Siberia. The oldest R burial found to date is from Mal'ta in Siberia at 24,000 YBP. Ancient branches of R DNA are also found in an estimated 30% of North American Indian Tribes and believed to have reached America via the Bering Straits from Siberia.
7000 BCE - 3,000 BCE: Maps of known groups and the emergence of the Yamnaya
WHG=Western Hunter Gatherers, EHG=Eastern Hunter Gatherers, CHG=Caucasus Hunter Gatherers, EEF=Early European Farmers.
(click below links for the maps)
WHG EHG & CHG - 7000BCE:
EEF & EHG - 4000BCE:
Steppes nomad groups with mostly R1a Y-DNA, are said to be the core contributor/component of the Cordedware Culture based on burial finds up to 2019. The Cordedware culture spanned Germany/Bohemia/Poland/Belorus/Ukraine and into Russia (through and well beyond Moscow). The Western end of the Cordedware culture appears to include R1b burials whereas the bulk of Cordedware region burials (spreading north east from Bohemia) are dominantly R1a Y-DNA with little to no R1b Y-DNA showing up (yet) outside today's Germany & Czech regions. Many researchers are still looking into why this split of R1a/R1b shows up in the Western Cordedware edge as R1a tends to dominate elsewhere in Cordedware burials. There is now serious doubt that L51 has *any* Yamnaya origin as the emerging evidence is that they got much of their DNA from the Samara region.
At the western End of the Cordedware Culture a later highly influential culture emerged called the Únětice Culture centered in Bohemia. Today that area is covered by both Czech Republic and Slovakia plus parts of adjacent countries (incl: Poland, Germany & Ukraine). There is some evidence emerging in ancient DNA burials suggesting this region could have been a concentration point for P312. The two lines of P312 and U106 do show up as quite separate groups speaking different variants of Indo-European. S1194 appears (to this project's admins) to have existed alongside eastern U106 (in Sth Baltic vs Western Jutland), and, for a long period was in a bottleneck (no pressure to expand), perhaps on a Baltic Island. Again, this area of research is still ongoing. It may be that P312 migrated into the Bohemia region. What complicates our understanding of P312 & U106 & S1194 & A8053 actual origins, is that they are all brother clades currently given a similar estimated date of origin. At YFull this is 4,800 years ago, perhaps even as old as 5,200 YBP) but P312 today, vastly outnumbers U106 and both P312+U106 greatly outnumber S1194 which is really tiny in numbers. A8053 is even tinier than S1194. So, an S1194 bottleneck is one logical explanation for the vast disparity in current numbers alive today versus the understood common date of origin of the three brother mutations.
The emergence of R1b-P312 & R1b-U106 & R1b-S1194 & R1b-A8053:
R1b-P312 dominates Western Europe and is most often associated with the name 'Celtic'. In the British Isles, P312 varies from roughly 80% to 20% with 80% in western Ireland.
R1b-U106 is much smaller in numbers than P312 and is mostly associated with Scandinavian/Germanic peoples. In the British Isles U106 varies from 30% to 5% and is strongest in eastern England dropping off as one heads west towards the far side of Britain. U106 tends to be associated with Jutes/Angles/Saxons & Frisians (the Romans called them Ingaevones) moving over the channel to Britain in the period 450AD-600AD. Obviously there would have been some I1 and R1a DNA among these Ingvaeones.
R1b-S1194 (like R1b-A8053) is tiny compared to its bother clades P312 & U106. It is associated with South Baltic / Germanic peoples. S1194 is < 0.05% in the British Isles & found mostly in former English border regions. In the rest of Europe S1194 is 'scattered'. The below data came from an analysis carried out by a citizen scientist at Anthrogenica (MitchellSince1893) and helps show how spread out S1194 is in Europe. For S1194 ...
(Late 2019) 79 samples are presently found in the FTDNA database in the following locations (excluding UK, Ireland, and New World samples)Germany: 28 (35%), Netherlands: 16 (20%), Sweden: 9 (11%), Denmark: 6 (8%), Belgium: 5 (6%), Italy: 4 (5%), Norway: 4 (5%)
Switzerland: 3 (4%), Poland: 2 (3%), France: 2 (3%), Portugal: 1 (1%), Austria: 1 (1%), Czechia: 1 (1%), Hungary: 1 (1%).
56% of these sample are from Germany & Netherlands
75% are from Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark
89% are from Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium, Norway, and Poland.
At some point and place (more research needed) the four main R1b brother clades of R1b-P312 & R1b-U106, R1b-S1194 andR1b-A8053, mutated then evolved. This evolution is slowly showing up in data from ancient DNA burials and some P312 are looking like they might have been linked to the Únětice Culture but clearly from the earlier Cordedware Culture then Central Bell Beaker culture. If it was earlier then more evidence from more ancient burials is needed to show this as we don't have that evidence today. It is expected that as new ancient DNA finds occur, they will help clarify to an even finer degree, where the parent SNP of these 3 clades (R1b-L151) established itself. As of today, no ancient burials show R1b-L151 any further towards Samara (Pontic-Caspian Steppes) than south eastern Ukraine, southern Germany and Bohemia (other than a L11+ but P312- & U106- ancient burial at Csepel Island in Hungary labelled find # I7043). Until L151 (aka L11) Y-DNA is found closer to Samara or in the Carpathian Basin / Hungarian Plains, a fair assumption is that L151(L11) evolved in the Northern European Plains. As previously mentioned, there is some small evidence of L151(l11) in the Carpathian basin at Csepel Island Hungary, but more concrete research is needed to understand this find as it is enigmatic. Csepel Island was an ancient cross-roads and trading post and certain to have burials of people from other nearby trading areas.
Research projects are actively looking into the Hungarian Plains Kurgans to see what Y-DNA shows up. We can expect to see new papers about them in 2020. Kurgans are typical Yamnaya burial mounds. By far the most of these Carpathian Kurgans are East of the Tisza river in eastern Hungary. Some researchers believe these will only include other branches of Steppes Nomads (such as I2+ and R1b-Z2103 Y-DNA) but not R1b-L51 or the R1b-L151(l11) branches. There is an ongoing investigation of them and their contents but to-date still no L51 or L151(aka L11) other than the Csepel Island find labelled I7043.
R1b-P312 vs R1b-U106 burials showing a clear bronze age Nth/Sth split: (This analysis came from 'citizen scientist' Richard Rocca).
We at the S1194 FTDNA Project believe R1b-S1194 were among the R1b-U106 peoples and not part of R1b-P312 groups until much later on (i.e. not until the historic migration period of the Scandinavian/Germanic tribes from the Sth Baltic. Note in the above map that the R1b-L151(L11) burial I7043 shown in Hungary is the one at Csepel Island - a Bronze Age crossroads and trading post. This raises the question as to if this particular burial is of an R1b-L151(L11) trader who came from the Bohemia region shown above or from the Rhine then Danube (see the two other burials in the Czech Republic). There is the possibility that R1b-U106 initially emerged near the east or south Baltic. We need more finds to help clarify this issue.
So where is the oldest R1b-S1194 ancient DNA find ?:
As of 2019 there are 2 burials (brothers) located on the Faroe Islands (Denmark). But our guess is they will start to show up in Scandinavia and the Sth Baltic, when found. But this is only an 'educated' guess. As of June 2020 we don't have any provable ancient burials in middle Europe for R1b-S1194. In 2017 & 2018 we had some 'false alarms'. So, as at June 2020 the oldest known S1194 burials are the 2 brothers dating to the middle ages, found in the Faroe Islands and reported in a 2019 paper titled 'Population genomics of the Viking world (bioxiv, 2019, Copenhagen)' and listing the 2 finds as VK25 & VK234. They are S1194-A8039.
R1b-P312 & Hallstatt / La Tene. R1b-U106 and Jutland. R1b-S1194 + R1b-A8053 and the Sth Baltic.
It has been published that R1b-P312 had reached Britain as Bell Beaker peoples around 2,500BC (Olalde et al 2018), prior to this new publication R1b-P312 had been thought of as originating and expanded from the Hallstatt & La Tene Culture regions in the areas of Austria and Switzerland. Of the R1b-P312 branches, L21 shows up in the UK, DF27 shows up in the Atlantic coast & Iberia - Another branch shows up in Italy (R1b-U152). Other branches (DF19 & ZZ337) also appear in other parts of Europe. The name Celtic tends to be associated with R1b-P312 but there were tribes of R1b-P312 DNA people who were clearly not part of known Celtic cultures. However as a generalization 'Celtic' is a reasonable label to describe them to help keep definitions simple. The evidence surrounding the Hallstatt & La Tene cultures show they occurred much later than the 2,500 BCE date for Bell Beaker (R1b-P312-L21) sweeping into Britain.
It is also likely that R1b-U106 consolidated then expanded out from the base of the Jutland Peninsula and is strong in Friesland (Nth Netherlands & Nth West Germany). The land of the Jutland Peninsula right down to Hamburg, was, in the past, a part of Denmark until 1864. Today the top part of this previously Danish controlled area is called Schleswig and the lower part called Holstein. The Angles (of Anglo-Saxon origin) came from Sth Schleswig. Saxons came from Holstien & greater Frisia. R1b-U106 remains very strong in these same regions today. R1b-U106 is thought of as Scandinavian/Germanic. Today, R1b-U106 is particularly dense in the north of the Netherlands and also Northern Germany and particularly in the areas called Friesland / Frisia. Interestingly, the English language is believed to have more in common with old Frisian than with old Saxon.
Just where R1b-S1194 became established and expanded from is still being determined but a 2010 study by N Myres et al, suggested three early places of origin in Europe/UK where L11* showed up. In 2010 S1124 was completely unknown so was called L11* which means L11 but without P312 and without U106. This is also written L11x(P312,U106) or L11(xP312,xU106). One region identified my Myres et al., was the Sth Baltic region, another was in England and the other was in a very small pocket the Sth Alps region . The deep question here is which of these three places might R1b-S1194 have expanded out of to reach the others. It is obvious S1194 did not spontaneously occur in all of them. Different people have different views on this issue. One view suggests the Sth Alps pocket were later tribal migrations from the Sth Baltic in line with known historical narratives. We know that there was a period of Scandinavian/Germanic migration/invasion from Jutland & East Denmark into Europe in the post Roman era, and later into England in the Scandinavian/Viking era 850AD-1100AD However the question is not settled to everyone's satisfaction. One good possibility for S1194 in UK is based on the Danish invasion of England by King Sweyn in 1013AD, consolidated by his son Canute (Knud) in 1018AD. Canute was for a time the king of England and a large part of Scandinavia (this included Western Norway and Skaane (now part of Sth Sweden).
The more data that comes to hand, the better we will be able to refine the points of origin and expansion for S1194. Until better evidence emerges, this project team accepts the Sth Baltic as the probable initial point of expansion to the other known and emerging hot-spots. Two other regions are showing up in addition to the three in the N.Myres et al., report. One is in the Rhine Valley region (close to Stuttgart) and Brabbant in the Netherlands. Both of those areas feature in known historical narratives for Scandinavian/Germanic migrations/invasions. It is fair to say some people think the Netherlands may have been the origin of R1b-S1194 however this is just one opinion among several and as of today is lacking any known historical narrative that explains how S1194 reached the other 'hot-spots'. There are also no ancient burial finds (yet) that support this.
Did R1b-P312 + R1b-U106 + R1b-S1194 originate in the Northern Plains of Europe ?. (Feb 2019).
Northern European Plains area:
The cultures that shaped us as admixtures of GAC + CW + Yamnaya (now in grave doubt):
And a reminder of the later Únětice culture:
This possibility of a Northern European Plains origin is considered more real today (in 2019/2020) by researchers who keep pointing out the lack of R1b-L51 & L11 sub-clade burial finds showing up anywhere East of the Ukraine & Poland & Bohemia (outside the Northern European Plains). There was a period where some of us wondered if ancient DNA research into the Kurgan burials in the Hungarian plains, might finally reveal L11 (parent of P312 / U106 or S1194). But, no. Thus far the ancient DNA Yamnaya finds in Hungary are either I2 Y-DNA or R1b-Z2103 which is a brother clade to L51. Z2103 does show up around Hungary and the Balkans to the East. Current data suggests that the Yamnaya migration that went into the Hungarian Plains were a separate group that did not include L51 / L11 / L151 but did include Z2103. It is entirely possible that L51 / L11 / L151 arrived in Europe travelling north of the Carpathian mountains in a completely separate migration, over time and *not* derived from the Yamnaya in the Pontic Caspian Steppes. Here we lean towards L11/L151 in particular, arriving north of the Carpathian mountains through northern Russia but today, this is only our opinion. This issue is being very actively investigated in 2019/2020. See again the view of L23 & its two main sub-clades of L51 & Z2103 here:
Main Point: Z2103 burials are being found in the Hungarian Plains kurgans but, L51 / L11/L151 burials are not yet showing up there. As always this is work in progress.
We would also ask that Full Genomes Corp. testers re-submit their YElite/WGS data once a Build 38 version becomes available.
James Kane: http://www.haplogroup-r.org/
Alex Williamson: http://ytree.net/
Iain McDonald: http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~mcdonald/genetics.html
Doug Marker: https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/df100-cts4528-l11-p310-l151-p311/about/background
11 Jan 2015:
The project is making good progress on establishing the best tests to take in order to get a clearer picture of where in the growing DF100/CTS4528 tree we fit. You are invited to join our facebook forum here:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/southbalticdna/ - Title: South Baltic DNA - L11/P310/P311/L151
The FB group is for sharing information with other 'rare DNA' members and most of us are DF100/CTS4528. We have members who administer other projects and in particular a member who handles DF100/CTS4528 for both ISOGG and the ftDNA Ht35 project.
This month Jan, we have begun creating a list of tests DF100/CTS4528 people can take to help them find where they belong in our emerging tree. We are also working on a future project to correlate known old family names to areas of probability of origin in UK, Holland, Sth Baltic areas (Denmark, Sweden, Germany & Poland) plus Sth Italian Alps).
You are also welcome to look at our repository of useful information here:
17 Nov 2014:
At this time it has become pretty well apparent that if a person is + for either one of DF100 or CTS4528 then both *can be assumed*. If at a future time someone emerges who is negative for one but not the other then we may again request that both tests be taken but for now, doing both tests as add-ons becomes an unnecessary cost, however, if some wants to buy both they are welcome to do so. In time it is assumed that newer testing chips will fix the discrepancy where only one or the other is tested (i.e. as is the case with the NatGeo Genome2 test which tests for CTS4528 but not for DF100). Big-Y does test for both.
This diagram comes from the HT35new project and is reproduced in part here (Just the CTS4528 DF100 part) with their kind permission.
16 Dec 2014:
This is a link to some very useful research done on DF100/CTS4528 plus R1b in general, by Michael Maglio (of Origin Hunters). The link covers some recent interesting research on R1b DNA back-flow to the Lebanon area that strongly indicates how L11 (P311) DNA was more likely taken to those areas within the past 1,000 years and that R1b Crusaders were the ones taking it there. Michael argues the case quite well, that L11 (P311) DNA that shows up in Armenia/Anatolia/Lebanon needs careful checking so as not to make the mistake of assuming this DNA has been in these places longer than it really was which runs the very strong risk of confusing the origins and historical migration of R1b into Europe from these areas in the near East. Michael uses STR variance to position people within their haplogroup and tells a very convincing story of where he sees R1b (and particularly in his earlier work - our DF100-CTS4528), originated and spread from around the South Baltic to near east and not necessarily the other way round.