Results
An Analysis of Progress To Date in the Crago Surname DNA Testing Project -- September, 2009
In order to analyze progress to date we must first be clear about what we hope to learn from Y-DNA testing of living Crago males. In this brief write-up, I'll attempt to list the project objectives I see at this point in time, -- and a summary of what we have learned so far. (ALSO BE SURE TO READ the Project Background and Project Goals sections.)
First, can we prove that most of the Crago's in North America (particularly those descended from Crago's born prior to 1798, i.e., the "Early Crago Immigrants") descend from just one Crago Male?
ANSWER: Yes, it seems that we can. After testing our first 16 male subjects with Crago or Craigo surnames, we have found that 8 of the 16 volunteers definitely share a single Recent Common Ancestor -- our "Thomas Crago DNA Pattern". This finding has concurrently led to the identification of a reference 67-marker DNA sequence, the ancestral haplotype for our "Thomas Crago DNA Pattern," which can be used as a basis for identifying the various branches of this ancestral Crago family tree in North America.
This DNA result confirms our conventional Genealogical research which pointed to this same result. The difference is that DNA results have clearly tied three otherwise unrelated family lines together: Thomas (Archibald?) Crago, Jr. of Greene Co., PA, Thomas Crago of Ross/Jackson/Vinton Co., OH, and Thomas Crago of Wood Co., OH.
We have currently identified four different DNA branches to this tree. This means that there appears to be a very good chance (currently a bit greater than 50%) that new Crago/Craigo male volunteers who sign up for a 37-marker DNA test can expect to be appropriately placed in a new or existing branch of the Thomas Crago family tree -- even without the benefit of conventional genealogical paper documentation!
Two other of our volunteers, both descendants of Nathan M Crago of Fayette Co., IN, have a different DNA profile from the one just described. We refer to this second DNA result as the "Nathan M Crago DNA Pattern". Nathan is the Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) of the two volunteers.
Three of the remaining six Crago/Craigo volunteers have identified a non-paternity event, (adoption, out-of-wedlock birth, and infidelity) that would seem to explain the reasons they did not inherit the identified Crago ancestral haplotype. And, one additional Crago comes from a relatively recent immigrant family that left Germany about 1872.
The last two of our unexplained Crago male volunteers will need to do additional conventional genealogical research (and/or test additional, conventionally-identified, male cousins), in order to more adequately explain their divergent DNA patterns. More work remains to be done on those family lines: Eli Craigo (born 1807) of Edgar Co., IL and Thomas Craigo (b. 1789) of Gilmer Co., GA.
We still have not tested any proven descendants of Robert Craigo of Preble Co., OH (a number of which migrated to Richland Co., WI) or John Crago of Callaway Co., MO.
The "bottom line" is that just two of the 16 tested volunteers (each with early immigrant roots), or 12% of our volunteers, remain as unexplained DNA variants in the early immigrant North American Crago family tree.
Second, do the Craigo, Crego, Crage, Craig and other surnamed variations of the Crago surname found in North America share a single male Recent Common Ancestor, or RCA (i.e., born after 1500 AD)? In other words, is our "Thomas Crago DNA Pattern" also the male ancestor of these variant surnamed individuals?
ANSWER: While we know that Crago and Craigo volunteers share a common ancestor in America, we have also learned that not all Crago's and Craigo's share a single male common ancestor.
And, we have recently learned that our first Crego volunteer, with documented roots back to Cornwall, England, does not share the basic Crago/Craigo DNA pattern. But, one Crego is certainly not conclusive. We'll look for a confirmation test of another Crego in the future.
And, we do not yet have test results for a Craige, Craigie or Crage male volunteer -- We hope that one or more will be willing to volunteer for testing in the future.
Discussions with the Craig surname study group administrator have established that none of the 50+ Craig's tested to date match any of our 15 Crago/Craigo volunteers. We'd like to see at least one Craig volunteer match any of the five identified Crago/Craigo DNA profiles we have so far before concluding that a Craig is genetically related to the Crago's and Craigo's in a genealogically meaningful timeframe. This is significant because we know that some Craigo's, for a variety of reasons, have changed their surname to Craig in the past.
Third, can we demonstrate that the early Crago immigrant(s) to North America share a recent common ancestor with the Crago's of Cornwall, England, and Australia? Or, stated another way, can we prove the origin of our early immigrant ancestors was in Cornwall, England?
ANSWER: At this time we cannot answer this question. To our knowledge, no Crago or Craigo outside of North America has had any DNA testing completed. A recent Crego volunteer with documented English roots did not shed any light on this question, since his DNA results don't match anyone else in our surname group. We will need to wait for other volunteers, perhaps currently resident in Australia and England, however, in order to more fully answer this question.
We hope to soon have a DNA test done on one or more of the South Dakota Crago's with documented roots back to Cornwall, England. This is a relatively recent immigrant group to America, and may provide the link to England that we are looking for.
A FINAL NOTE: Some volunteers might wish to know how many markers they need to have tested in order to provide enough information for this Crago DNA study. In most cases, it appears that a 37 marker test (now just $119 at the Crago Group Rate) should be the most appropriate test. So far, none of the 134,000 plus persons tested by FTDNA have had a 37-marker haplotype which comes closer than a genetic distance of four (4) to our ancestral Thomas Crago haplotype -- unless their name was Crago or Craigo. Our ancestral Thomas Crago haplotype appears to be rather unique.
We know less about the recently determined Nathan Crago DNA tree at this time, but it is clearly different in substantial ways from the Thomas Crago DNA tree. A 37-marker test, however, would clearly distinquish between the two major family lines.
Please feel free to share this information with others, and we'd be happy to answer questions for any reader, if we can. Of course, we welcome new Crago/Craigo/Craig/Crego volunteers as we continue to build this genetic Crago family tree.
Footnote: A recent common ancestor (RCA) in this testing context is considered to be an ancestor within a conventionally researchable timeframe. In other words, this means an ancestor born since about 1500, when surnames came into common use. We have better than a 58% probability, however, that the common ancestor for most of us (the Thomas Crago DNA Pattern) was born within the past 8 generations, or within the past 250 years.