Project News
At the present time our Y study sample is showing some diversity but is considered to be too small to make any definitive conclusions concerning the BARD, BAIRD and BEARD surnames. Probability calculations and comparisons within our donor population, and between them and other individuals can be researched and reviewed on
Ysearch
The more different the markers are between any two donors, the further back one has to go to assume a relatively high probability of having a common ancestor (and mutations can potentially affect and "disguise" the results and their conclusions), but if all 12 markers are exactly the same between any two doners, then one can say that there is a genetic probability of 50% that the two people in question had a common ancestor no later than 14.5 generations ago. To approach a higher probability of a most recent common ancestor with a 12 to 12 match, (let's say 95%), we can assume that they had a common ancestor no later than 62 generations ago. Somewhat more detailed explanations are here: Ysearch Frequently Asked Questions 2.
For our purposes a "generation" is defined as 25 years before and during the dark ages (generally from about 476 to 1400, also called the Early Middle Ages), and as approximately 25 to 30 years after the Dark Ages. So in regard to our example above, 14.5 generations would equal about 360 years, and 62 generations would equal approximately 1700 years.
You can do ysearch comparisons yourself by going here: Ysearch Research and entering any sequence of ID's. Such as 97XHX, 9Z7PS, 8HH8M, BMUCZ, 7S9MV, MVP5V, PQAZ3, VXUA7
Some other surnames that have inexplicably shown relative genetic closeness are: BRANDON and ORR (and in regard to not one of their donors, but several different donors).
As you can see, this type of comparative research does not give us solid, exact, genealogy data such as individuals' names or birth dates, as we are used to finding in genealogy research. It is more wholistic; more global in nature. It shows us where to begin to look for probable connections in our distant old world past, and then hopefully, we may find verification of those probable connections with original source documentation. (And perhaps also find additional, and more precise, genetic verification and illumination of these issues, in the future.)
We hope to see some discernible groupings and trends as study participation increases.
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